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Tuesday, August 9, 2011

Some Thoughts on the S&P Downgrade - Clive Crook

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/08/some-thoughts-on-the-s-p-downgrade/243209/

I tend to agree with Mr. Cook, that perhaps the US no longer deserves a AAA rating. But if not, do the many countries in Europe? Africa? These ratings are at the hands of private companies, companies staffed by the leftovers of the financial industry that could not get employment on Wall Street. They are paid by the companies they rate and beholden to them to a large extent. What is their rating worth when compared to an analysis from any grad student? Sure, you have to read a bit more, but at least we know the math is correct.

Everyone is arguing that since the credit crisis of '08, these ratings are worthless anyway. I don't agree totally, but they're close. But what equation tells you that Scottish national debt or Belgian national debt is a better investment than US debt? That's just stupid. The real revelation is that perhaps investing in sovereign debt, a port of safety in rough times, is becoming unstable. That would be a revelation that could strike panic into financial markets, but that's not what they said. Yet.

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