http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/162341-palin-i-do-have-the-fire-in-my-belly
If Sarah Palin enters the race, I think at this point she would probably rocket to the top. In the last three weeks we've watched two leading candidates self-immolate (Trump and Gingrich) and one simply decline to run (Huckabee). Haley barber, if you want to count him as a realistic candidate, decided not to run either. The nominal front runner, Romney, appears to be the candidate that disgusts everyone but is accepted as the least objectionable candidate, where it is assumed that independents and the hated RINOs can tolerate him and help bring about the defeat of Obama.
As is pointed out in Jay Cost's post in the Weekly Standard, the Sunbelt states are now the home to the GOP powerbase. This has become even more exagerated in the face of Obama's presidency. While Palin is obviously not from the Sunbelt, it is where her natural base is. More socialcon then econocon, she can deliver delegates and star power in that part of the country like no other candidate.
The absence of a Sunbelt contender is the only reason anyone ever gave Barber a shot and why people are bouncing around names like Rick Perry. The South will need to be motivated in the next election to deliver the White House, so the logic goes that they will need a candidate to deliver them that motivation. You can see now why Romney represents such a depressing reality for them.
I submit that Palin's true base is solidly in the South, and that they would think of her as their own if she ran. The window might shut quickly or remain open for months, but as most of the headlines show one candidate after the other falling to the wayside, she is solidly in the drivers' seat.
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Friday, May 20, 2011
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