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Monday, February 20, 2012

Michigan GOP race tightens

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/02/michigan-gop-race-tightens.html

The Republican race for President in Michigan has tightened considerably over the last week, with what was a 15 point lead for Rick Santorum down to 4. He leads with 37% to 33% for Mitt Romney, 15% for Ron Paul, and 10% for Newt Gingrich.
The tightening over the last week is much more a function of Romney gaining than Santorum falling. Santorum's favorability spread of 67/23 has seen no change since our last poll, and his share of the vote has dropped only 2 points from 39% to 37%. Romney meanwhile has seen his net favorability improve 10 points from +10 (49/39) to +20 (55/35) and his vote share go from 24% to 33%.
What we're seeing in Michigan is a very different story from Florida where Romney surged by effectively destroying his opponent's image- here Romney's gains have more to do with building himself up.

I've not heard much prognostication about what to do if Romney carries both Michigan and Ohio, a very real possibility given Santorum's decision to overstep all kinds of lines in the last several days. If he does win these two states after a whithering attack by Santorum and Gingrich both, does that not make him the presumptive nominee? Can he then start to focus on Obama? I don't think it's to that point yet. but is he does carry Ohio and Michigan and then performs well on Super Tuesday, his future is a little more settled.

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