5 questions few are asking about Libya - Issandr El Amrani

http://www.arabist.net/blog/2011/3/20/5-questions-few-are-asking-about-libya.html

What is the most desirable outcome?
Obviously, to see Qadhafi toppled. But that's only step one. We don't know what the insurgents want aside from a Qadhafi-free Libya. We don't know what Western powers (if they are united on this) want to see. We don't know what the Arabs want to see. Libya will get increasingly porous and subject to external interference as well as possible splits on the inside. Ideally, a new government emerge that is generally seen as legitimate by Libyans and works to prevent further splits, paving the way for the creation of a new political system (a constitution, parliament, etc.) I really hope this happens, but we can't realistically expect it to be easy. We just don't know what the political forces are on the ground.

At this point, the unknowns are far too pervasive and the situation is moving too quickly for us to maintain any sense of control over the situation, which is bad because the situation clearly keeps trying to suck the United States in. Domestic politics in the Arab world are playing a larger part in this than humanitarianism, which is doubly dangerous as we can't divine them or where it will lead us. The Egyptians are full court pressing this and will probably emerge as the dominant power in North Africa, seeking an equal footing with Israel, maintaining some semblance of control and military access in Eastern Libya.