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Friday, March 18, 2011

As U.N. Backs Military Action in Libya, U.S. Role Is Unclear - DAN BILEFSKY and MARK LANDLER

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/18/world/africa/18nations.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss

The questions to ask:
1. What is everyone's role? Do the US and France and Britain supply the planes, while the others supply the fuel?
2. What do we do if this succeeds? Is there a plan in place if the regime collapses? Humanitarian aid will be needed, infrastructure will need to be replaced, there is no group of people prepared to govern a country.
3. Everyone realizes this is open-ended, right? The no-fly zones and the subsequent efforts in Kosovo, Bosnia and Iraq all lasted 10-15 years. That is roughly what we are looking at.
4. The rules of engagement are going to evolve as this thing goes on, I can assure you of that. It appears that the regime forces have enough armored power to abandon air attacks and just focus on blasting the opposition from the ground. As the rebels melt away the UN is going to find itself with a route on its hands. At that point the pressure will be to stop the advance of the regime forces and that means taking out tanks and artillery, or offering the very credible threat that you will.

By all appearances Qaddafi may have gotten the picture, as his son promised that the assault on Benghazi has been called off. Of course, he is a liar and an international pariah. It may be that their forces have outrun their supply lines, who knows? The point is that either the mopping up operations have progressed to the point that the regime can take a breather as victory is at hand, or they really do feel threatened. There is no end game for Qaddafi and his son. Only by negotiating to stay in power can they even live, and they will have to offer a lot. This may be the first bargaining chip they offer.

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