Fear of Civil War Mounts in Syria as Crisis Deepens - Anthony Shadid

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/15/world/middleeast/syria-in-deep-crisis-may-be-slipping-out-of-control.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all

Mr. Assad still commands a largely loyal government. Unlike in Libya, defections from within the leadership, or even diplomatic service, have been few — so rare, in fact, that the departure of a mid-ranking cleric from the state’s religious establishment recently was hailed as a victory by the opposition.

For many, the calculus remains much as it did at the beginning of the uprising. Though some soldiers have defected from the military, the more essential security forces, dominated by Mr. Assad’s own Alawite clan, have remained cohesive. Their loyalty, along with support from nervous Christians — who with the Alawites make up more than a fifth of the country — means his fall is not imminent or even likely.