Newt up in Iowa

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/12/newt-up-in-iowa.html

Unless Romney can reverse his momentum, Newt Gingrich is going to win the Iowa caucus. Once that happens things become chaotic pretty quickly. Romney has never been invested that heavily in Iowa, until recently, so Iowa may not be a huge loss for him. New Hampshire is a probably win for Romney, but at South Carolina is when things really start to go sour for him.

If Romney comes out of the first handful of primaries with only a win in New Hampshire, home territory for him anyway, he will not be president. He needs to win at least one other primary to remain alive but I honestly don't see where that is going to come from. He's down big in every other race there is.

One hope for Romney is that Gingrich resumes being Gingrich in the next month and bloviates his way out of the race. I think this is a failing strategy. To this point every darling of the right wing has had nine lives when it comes to the base. Only the rankest and most egregious errors or admissions even make a dent and it takes a dozen or so to bury them. In the time between now and Iowa there are only so many things Gingrich can say to damage himself, especially in the eyes of the base. Therefore he is going to have to ad blitz his way into Iowa and New Hampshire by tearing into Gingrich, and at the same time drawing him out in the debates. This is an uphill task, since the negative ads will reflect negatively on Romney and he will get no help from the also-rans or the moderators at these debates, but it is his only hope.

Iowa does not determine who will be president, but as it did with Obama, it can electrify momentum that can carry someone to the candidacy.