The View from New Hampshire - Jonathan V. Last

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/view-new-hampshire_616000.html?google_editors_picks=true

Romney's tie with Santorum in Iowa looks more like a victory for Santorum than it does a positive for Romney. While Romney scored big with those that consider defeating Obama their top priority, Santorum was buoyed by his perceived hard edge social conservatism, the scant airing of his controversial views, and his ability to not be Mitt Romney when it counted. Santorum would be better served to skip Hew Hampshire and concentrate on South Carolina, where his loony views and nonsensical positions will be given more consideration. Add to that the fact that Perry and possibly Bachmann will no longer be in the race at that point and their voters are more inclined to Santorum than Romney. That could be a huge factor if Gingrich plays his role in the next week and simply stabs at Romney over and over while ignoring Santorum.

Mitt should roll in New Hampshire, as he was on TV there for years as the governor of a nearby state and his moderate ways pay off better in old New England. The danger is if he doesn't dominate. Leaving nothing to chance, he's focused on New Hampshire for years and only gave Iowa consideration late in the game, when it appeared that he might be able to actually win it.

New Hampshire is important, but we expect Romney to score a resounding victory there. The true indicator of the race will be whether or not Santorum can continue to evade his record and be an abstract alternative to Romney for the next ten or so days. Santorum cannot win the nomination, but he can wound Romney to the point where he cannot win the election.